I like the HFC competition, for my own reasons. However, most forecasters don’t seem to understand the highly punative scoring system imposed upon them. They will cast a question thinking that because they understand the problem domain more than most, they should answer it. That is flat out wrong, worse, the HFC scoring system inadvertantly encourages casters to participate in more questions because the fewer in a question the more points they can earn. Yet, they don’t seem to process that is a double edge sword.
Lets look at the last few questions that were resoved (correctly, I will point out).
Here are the net points the forecasters got as a group
Paraguayan election -187
Syria strike -303
Cuba election -338
Baffin bay St Lawrence ice extent -305
Let me point out for those who think it is a dash, it is not, it is a negative sign. That is *negative* 187 points. As in, the ‘team Prescience’ would have been better off not forecasting it. At all. But there is an algorithm in the back that will heavily weight the forecasts of the high forecasters and ignore the low ones. So I will avoid discussing the entire team avoiding questions, instead lets look at picking the *right* questions.
If you are wanting to get a high score then lets look at some math. For example the Baffin Bay Ice problem. I got the high score…of 0 points. In fact 13 of us did. The low score got -106. So from a game theory perspective, we risked -106 for achieving 0. That is stupidity.
Another question, the Colorado party Paraguyan question. It started out about 80/20. Top score got only 6 points, the worst got -79. What does that tell you? That you need to be about 13x more confident before you enter a question if it is above 80 or below 20. I could make a heuristic here and say you need to take the percentage ratio 80:20=4 and multiply that by 3 (=12x) to get how much more confident you know more about this question than anybody else. That is, if their is very little variance amongst the casts, so if everyone is in the same range, like 80/20, 82/18, 78/22 then there is low variance.
If high uncertainty reigns. And there are 70/30 and 50/50 and 20/80 and other casts all over the place, then you will be able to win more points as the median estimates will be farther off from your estimate. Like with the Material conflicts in Occupied Palestine question. Almost 1/2 the scores were positive and 1/2 negative, so a favorable question to participate in if you have a small advantage with your judgment.
Conclusions – Triage the new questions carefully. Avoid getting into a question for emotional reasons, or because you know more about it than the average dude at a party.
Avoid questions where there seems to be a consensus in the answer. Unless you really, really, know a shitload more than everyone else *and* you can avoid your own hedgehog bias. You have much to lose and little to gain. On the flip side, if there is chaos amongst the casts, then you can enter the fray with a slight advantage.
Posted in musings and tagged htc by admin with 2 comments.
Oh my, this Catalan vault is quite the project. I knew it would be labor intensive, but I had no idea the issues I’d have on the corners. Should have stuck with a barrel vault. Guastavino, I am not. Overall, there is about a 40-45% rise, so close to a perfect hemisphere of 50%. Spanning 11 feet with a 4.5 foot rise.
The scaffolding is up and usable, but needs some plywood decks on it.
The corners are so labor intensive, 3-4 tiles must be modified for each corner per row.
I figure 40 more manhours then I have to put on the coping stones around the shed, and then design a glorious Gothic door.
Found a very detailed plan of how catalan vaults were built in Great Britain, including tips and tricks that I really wish I knew before I started. If anyone out there wants to try their hand, follow this advice:
Lessons I’ll be applying:
- Cover working edge with tarp to keep it moister
- With Satillo tile, like AAC, they have to be very damp to get a good bond.
- Do 3 courses at once to see the curvature, and because the course below will already be moist
Posted in news by admin with no comments yet.
So this weekend, the mason and I finished the outside walls. 3 of them, actually, as the back wall won’t be clad.
Posted in news by admin with .
So the roof is up to 6 courses, with 5 having a second ply mortared on.
The corners continued to be a bitch until I realized I need to slope them in faster than the roof walls, because they need to get to the center faster as they have farther to travel. Hence the nearby tiles are sloped in as I approach each corner. Now that that’s understood, I think I can make faster headway and get a row done and 2plyed in 2.5 hours. So maybe 3 courses a day 2-plyed completed?
Posted in news by admin with .
I would have preferred to use broad leaf ligustrum as my weavers but I didn’t have the time or money to harvest so frilling many to have a fence made out of them. Instead I found a guy who had just cleared out a batch of invasive bamboo and had a thousand linear feet or so. I had him trim off the leafy bits and leave me with the straight stalks. Driving in the posts (juniper that don’t rot in 20 years) took me 6 man hours. Weaving in the wattles took 2 man hours. Total length that I built is 32 feet.
- Green bamboo is more flexible and better.
- Once the diameter is over 1″ it becomes hard to weave
- Make sure your posts are lined up! Use a tight line to guide you. I got off a little and it caused some bamboo to break around that pole.
Posted in news and tagged bamboo fence, wattle fence by admin with .
The shed keeps moving along.
Posted in Uncategorized by admin with .
So the front orchard is going to need water. I could have just run the irrigation hose to the back tanks, but noooo that would have been easy. Instead I chose to harvest more water off the front of the house where very little water is harvested. I already have two 55 gallon barrels taking in water on the front, those water the fig tree. They only catch a fraction of the rain from 1200 sq ft of roof surface during a rain. So I put in another rain downspout, and ran it under the sidewalk. The tank is a 330 gallon IBC tote, painted and with a shade cloth to mitigate algae growth.
The easy way to tunnel under a side walk is using a water hose with water going full blast and shove it under. It erodes out the dirt and I can reach under and pull out the rocks. Took 20 minutes to dig the trenches on each side of the sidewalk but only took 10 minutes to burrow under. So the premise is the water will fill up the pipe, go down, then go back up the pipe and fill into the tank because the tank level is lower than the starting downspout level.
Then it rained a week later, the tank filled up and then overflowed, because I forgot to drill anti siphon holes on the top of the overflow U, the entire tank drained out. But I discovered that at the end of the rain and fixed it, so the tank filled 1/2 full before the end.
The front orchard has 8 trees in it: 2 Texas Persimmons (at least 40 years old), 2 jujubes, 2 Pomgranates, and a VDB fig.
Posted in musings, news by admin with no comments yet.
Another Spring upon us. The winter was inconsistant with periods of cold and warm, thus most of my fruit trees didn’t get enough chill hours to bloom.
In the front yard, I got a Celeste fig planted near Biff Polywog, our sea dragon.
The front yard swale now has 2 Jujube trees (Honey Jar and ?), 2 Pomgranates (a Wonderful and an Eversweet?), some family purple Irises, and soon another Fig from Dad’s place I call a Center White as it is a white fig with closed eye.
Bought a roll of driveway rebar wire to make tomato cages and tree protector cages. It was tough to work with but it does the job.
Posted in news by admin with .
The LX 100 camera is great compact 4/3 sensor camera. But it is prone to dust on the sensor which is likely pulled in by suction as it telescopes out.
Taking the camera apart is a chore, but I’ve read someone using a vacuum to apply suction to the lens assembly to pull out dust. Didn’t think much about it, but when I got dust on my sensor after 6 months, well. Had to try.
I turned it on and off twice to get the dust semi-airborne I hoped. Then turned on my vacuum cleaner and using the extension hose, i held it on the front side of the lens assembly then turned the camera off, which collapses the assemble and hopefully exerts positive air pressure. I repeated this 5 times. Then checked the camera using a white background. Poof, dust on sensor gone! Boy, was I surprised. I wanted to make an adaptor out of cardboard between the camera lens and the vacuum, but it wasn’t needed.
Posted in news and tagged dust, lx100, sensor by admin with .
Eratosthenes measured the world using shadows cast in two different cities at the same time. I’ve been wanting to replicate it for over decade. Today I did. 5 volunteers from San Diego to Nashville all have the same style of pencil of the same length. Everyone is to measure the shadow on it at noon CST. Today only 2 could do it. From the data, I have computed the following:
circumference_earth – 32744.22 miles
> real_circumference_earth<-24901 miles
So a rough, but useful first attempt. The R code I’m using is:
#computing circumference of earth library(dplyr) library(tidyr) library(ggplot2) library(animation) library(readr) setwd("~/Copy/R/climate change/") real_circumference_earth<-24901 data<-as.data.frame(read_delim("earth shadow data.csv", ",")) data<-data[,-1] pencil<- 19.0 avg_data<-(colMeans(data)) str(data) avg_data angle_mt<-180-90-atan(pencil/avg_data)/(2*pi/360) angle_tc<-180-90-atan(pencil/avg_data)/(2*pi/360) net_angle_tc<-angle_tc-angle_mt angle_mt angle_ratio_to_tc<-360/abs(net_angle_tc) distance_trevor<-651.0 earth_circ_per_tc<-distance_trevor*angle_ratio_to_tc earth_circ_per_tc err_per_tc<-(earth_circ_per_tc-real_circumference_earth)/real_circumference_earth*100 err_per_tc
Posted in R and tagged Eratosthenes, measuring earth by admin with .